Test-running My Stock Analysis App Model

, , 1 comment
Yesterday I bought First Bank shares. I ran it through my stock analysis app model and found out that it is very undervalued. I will be buying more shares now that my stock analysis app is getting close to release version. I will be my own first customer and continually fine tune the app based on my usage experience.

How did I know that First Bank is undervalued?

I ran a comparative analysis on First Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank and Stanbic IBTC. As at Wednesday 5th October 2016, below are the analysis data for the three companies.

Stock Price
First Bank shares were selling for N3.10
Guaranty Trust Bank shares were selling for N24.10
Stanbic IBTC Bank shares were selling for N17.05

Last Five Year Revenues
In the following order: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015
First Bank:  274 billion 370 billion  395 billion  480 billion  502 billion
Guaranty Trust Bank:  182 billion  222 billion  243 billion 278 billion  302 billion
Stanbic IBTC Bank:  63 billion  92 billion  111 billion  131 billion 

Last Five Year Net Incomes
In the following order: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015
First Bank:   19.5 billion  77 billion  70 billion  84.2 billion 15.4 billion
Guaranty Trust Bank:   51.2 billion  87 billion   90 billion  93.7 billion  98.7 billion
Stanbic IBTC Bank:   5.7 billion  8.9 billion  18.6 billion  29.3 billion 

Return on Assets
In the following order: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015
First Bank:   0.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 0.4%
Guaranty Trust Bank:   3.7%  5.2% 4.7% 4.2% 4.0%
Stanbic IBTC Bank:   1.2% 1.4% 2.6% 3.4%

Return on Equity
In the following order: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015
First Bank:   5.5% 19.1% 15.5% 17.1% 2.8%
Guaranty Trust Bank:   23.6% 34.1% 29.4% 27.3% 25.8%
Stanbic IBTC Bank:   6.7% 10.9% 21.0% 28.7%

I don't see any logical reason for First Bank shares to be as low as N3.10.

1 comment:

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