Nigeria's Economic Outlook Report by GTBank

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Thumbs up for GTBank for the very valuable whitepaper they publish on the economic outlook of the country. Last week, they published the one for 2016: what the economy is already like and what the expectations are for the year.

You can download the report here: GTBank Macroeconomic and Banking Sector Themes for 2016.

Though I don't like the opening but I'll leave you to make your own like or hate decision without influencing it. Here's the verbatim quote of the opening sentences:

"According to the Chinese astrological tradition, 2016 is the year of the Monkey. Monkeys are seen to be intelligent, ambitious, witty, brave and possess a great sense of competition. There would be high demand for these attributes as thoughts turn to 2016."

The report talked about five major things:

  1. How the economic growth is slowing down (Economic Growth)
  2. Buhari's N500 billion plan to feed school children, give the unemployed poor monthly stipend and how sure are we that the money will actually get to the poor (Social Welfare Scheme)
  3. The #BuyNigeria crusade, unbundling of NNPC, passing of the PIB in phases and the no-money-to-pay-minimum-wage issue. (Economic Diversification and Reforms)
  4. The funny looking 2016 national budget, how we are planning to borrow a lot to finance it and expecting N350 billion from looters to fund part of it. (2016 FG Budget)
  5. Godwin's stand on the Exchange rate, why foreigners are avoiding bringing their money here and how the dollar rise + scarcity is affecting businesses (Exchange Rate Policy and Market Liquidity).
It is a very lively worded report. The writer has a good sense of humor, maybe too much for a formal report like that. You can feel his passion and sentiments in it. How he is against the non-devaluation of the Naira, how he is almost sure that the social welfare scheme will end up as another Dasuki case, how the SMEs are going to suffer more and that the oil price will fall rather than rise. 

It is the best economic report on Nigeria I have read this year. You should give it a look to. Best part is that it is just 12 pages.


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